Friday, June 27, 2008

Credit Crisis: The 4th Wave?

(Calculated Risk) The TED spread is starting to rise again and is back above 1.0 for the first time since the beginning of May. Here is the TED Spread from Bloomberg. The spread is still far below the previous three waves, but well above the normal level (below 0.5).

And from the WSJ: European Bank-Lending Anxiety Returns

Tensions in Europe's short-term lending markets are on the rise again, repeating a pattern that central bankers had hoped to end by pumping in hundreds of billions of dollars in recent months.

The pressure partly reflects an end-of-quarter effect, as banks hoard cash to make sure their finances look healthy when they report second-quarter results.

But it also demonstrates that fears of further write-downs and possible failures aren't going away.
And from the Fed Commercial Paper report, the A2/P2 less AA spread has risen to 82 bps. Note: This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day nonfinancial commercial paper.

A2/P2 Non-Financial Spread

Perhaps it's a little premature to worry about a 4th wave, but these are worrisome signs.

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